Library

 

President Nixon and the Role of Intelligence in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War

Printer-friendly versionPrinter-friendly version

This collection highlights the causes and consequences of US Intelligence Community’s (IC) failure to foresee the October 1973 Arab-Israeli War, also known as the October War or the Yom Kippur War. A coalition of Arab nations led by Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 6, the day of Yom Kippur. Prior to October 6, the CIA concluded that the Arabs would not attack, so the offensive surprised US policymakers as well as Israel. Directorate of Intelligence (DI) analysts believed that Arab military inferiority would militate against an attack on Israel. DI analysis did not explore the possibility that leaders might go to war--even at the risk of losing--to pursue political objectives. According to an internal postmortem, Agency analysis was impaired by preconceptions about Arab military capabilities, information overload, rational actor modeling and groupthink.

View the OPA Press Release and Collection Booklet

Documents in this Collection

Documents in PDF format require the Adobe Acrobat Reader®

SPECIALCOLLECTION

CIA, DIA and State INR Paper: Another Arab-Israeli War: Motives and Capabilities

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d839448b
AttachmentSize
1973-12-18-CM.pdf238.04 KB

SPECIALCOLLECTION

CIA: Middle East Communications Support Summary

Document Number: 51112a4b993247d4d8394537
AttachmentSize
1973-10-26-CIA.pdf51.67 KB

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Combined Watch Report of the United States Intelligence Board: Middle East

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d8394493
AttachmentSize
1973-10-04-CM.pdf28.08 KB

SPECIALCOLLECTION

COMIREX-M-180, Section III, paragraphs 1-3

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d8394473
AttachmentSize
1973-11-06-CM.pdf62.13 KB

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Corrected page 9 from WSAG Meeting Minutes

Document Number: 51112a4b993247d4d8394579
AttachmentSize
1973-10-06B-WASG.pdf64.27 KB

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Cover page Memorandum for Admiral Moorer from Samuel M. Hoskinson

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d8394486
AttachmentSize
1973-10-26.pdf28.51 KB

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Critique of Middle East Crisis

Document Number: 51112a4b993247d4d8394530
AttachmentSize
1973-10-27-CIA.pdf156.58 KB

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Critique of Studies on Syria and Iraq

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d83944a6
AttachmentSize
1973-09-13.pdf262.86 KB

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Current Need for GIANT REACH Photo-Reconnaissance of the Middle East

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d8394489
AttachmentSize
1973-12-06-CM.pdf105.61 KB

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Current Need for Middle East Photo Reconnaissance

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d8394491
AttachmentSize
1973-11-29-CM.pdf114.75 KB

Pages