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President Nixon and the Role of Intelligence in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War

This collection highlights the causes and consequences of US Intelligence Community’s (IC) failure to foresee the October 1973 Arab-Israeli War, also known as the October War or the Yom Kippur War. A coalition of Arab nations led by Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 6, the day of Yom Kippur. Prior to October 6, the CIA concluded that the Arabs would not attack, so the offensive surprised US policymakers as well as Israel. Directorate of Intelligence (DI) analysts believed that Arab military inferiority would militate against an attack on Israel. DI analysis did not explore the possibility that leaders might go to war--even at the risk of losing--to pursue political objectives. According to an internal postmortem, Agency analysis was impaired by preconceptions about Arab military capabilities, information overload, rational actor modeling and groupthink.

View the OPA Press Release and Collection Booklet

 

Documents in this Collection

Documents in PDF format require the Adobe Acrobat Reader®

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Central Intelligence Bulletin: Egypt-USSR

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d839442f

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Central Intelligence Bulletin: Egypt-USSR

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d83943f0

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Central Intelligence Bulletin: Fedayeen

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d8394430

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Central Intelligence Bulletin: International Oil

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d8394455

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Central Intelligence Bulletin: Israel-Egypt-Syria

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d8394437

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Central Intelligence Bulletin: Israel-Syria

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d839443f

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Central Intelligence Bulletin: Lebanon

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d8394449

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Central Intelligence Bulletin: Lebanon-Fedayeen

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d83943f6

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Central Intelligence Bulletin: Lebanon-Fedayeen

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d8394425

SPECIALCOLLECTION

Central Intelligence Bulletin: Libya

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d8394422

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