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President Nixon and the Role of Intelligence in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War

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This collection highlights the causes and consequences of US Intelligence Community’s (IC) failure to foresee the October 1973 Arab-Israeli War, also known as the October War or the Yom Kippur War. A coalition of Arab nations led by Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 6, the day of Yom Kippur. Prior to October 6, the CIA concluded that the Arabs would not attack, so the offensive surprised US policymakers as well as Israel. Directorate of Intelligence (DI) analysts believed that Arab military inferiority would militate against an attack on Israel. DI analysis did not explore the possibility that leaders might go to war--even at the risk of losing--to pursue political objectives. According to an internal postmortem, Agency analysis was impaired by preconceptions about Arab military capabilities, information overload, rational actor modeling and groupthink.

View the OPA Press Release and Collection Booklet

Documents in this Collection

Documents in PDF format require the Adobe Acrobat Reader®

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Situation Report Number 88

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d83944cf
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1973-10-28A.pdf357.49 KB

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Situation Report Number 9

Document Number: 51112a4b993247d4d83944ed
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1973-10-07B-SR.pdf347.62 KB

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Situation Report Number 90

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d83944c6
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1973-10-28B.pdf155.36 KB

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Situation Report Number 91

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d83944cc
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1973-10-29A-SR.pdf135.8 KB

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Situation Report Number 92

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d83944b8
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1973-10-29B-SR.pdf482.03 KB

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Situation Report Number 93

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d83944e9
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1973-10-30-SR.pdf296.16 KB

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Situation Report Number 99

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d83944d5
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1973-11-02A-SR.pdf210.12 KB

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SNIE 11/30-73: Soviet Military Options in the Middle East

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d83944a5
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1973-11-02B-CM.pdf287.57 KB

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SNIE 30-3-73: The Arab-Israeli Situation and the Oil Crisis

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d8394478
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1973-12-05.pdf1.84 MB

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SNIE 30-74: Implications of Reopening the Suez Canal

Document Number: 51112a4a993247d4d8394472
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1974-02-21.pdf2.53 MB

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